Australian Premium Solar H1 FY26 Concall Highlights:

👉FY 2026 & Future Outlook :

▫️Guidance from management remains ~75%+ CAGR revenue growth for FY26 (also for FY27)

💠Driven by product mix, operating leverage, and new TopCon capacity

▫️Segment revenue contribution :

💠Solar pumps: 35–40% of FY26 revenue

💠EPC (C&I + retail rooftop): 15–20% growth YoY

💠Wholesale/distribution: 50% of FY26 revenue

 ▫️Gross margins: Sustained for next ~3 quarters

💠Pumps: 12–15%

💠Wholesale: 10–11% (may dip to ~10% due to competition

💠Retail/EPC (rooftop + C&I): 15–18%

💠Overall EBITDA margin expected to remain strong or improve slightly vs H1

💠PAT margin to stay ~9–10% or better

👉Order book / projects and pipeline:

▫️Current order book : 

💠~310cr+ for Solar Pumps (4-6 months execution)

💠Wholesale/distribution: Monthly rolling orders (no fixed long-term book; fluctuates ±15–20 paisa/watt).

💠Retail/EPC: Daily orders, no fixed book

▫️Active in KUSUM-C (pumps) and residential rooftop; not active in large ground-mounted KUSUM-A/B
▫️Pipeline: 

💠 Capacity ramp-up: 400 MW TopCon commissioned → total 800 MW (400 MW Mono PERC + 400 MW TopCon)

💠Q1 FY27 Additional 400 MW → 1.2 GW total module capacity

💠Solar cell plant (1 GW phase-1): CapEx ~900–950 Cr (30% equity, 70% debt); expected commissioning May–Jun 2027 (18–20 months from water approval, pending Gujarat govt clearance)

💠Pump segment: Approved in 10 states; strong tender wins continue (restricted entry for new players due to 1,000–10,000 pump experience criteria).

💠EPC: Expanding beyond Gujarat into Maharashtra & Rajasthan

💠Wholesale: Geographic expansion to Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, South India

💠Long-term cell integration: First 1 GW cell line to support internal module needs; eventual 4 GW total cell capacity planned

👉 Others :

▫️Net debt/equity 0.05× (Sep'25); almost debt-free despite heavy Capex
▫️Demand-supply outlook :India needs 40–50 GW solar annually; only ~120–230 GW nameplate module capacity (actual output 70–75%)

💠Re-iterated no overcapacity fear for diversified players like APS (30% market in residential/C&I/pumps vs 70% ground-mount pure players who may face realization challenges)

💠ALMM/PLI from Jun 2026 → limited impact on APS (already ALMM-compliant; not chasing NTPC/Coal India tenders)

▫️Diversification strategy: Shifting from pure module sales to in-house consumption (pumps + EPC to use 600–800 MW internally)

💠Solar cell entry to capture 20–25% value chain margin currently lost to suppliers

💠New sales team hired for ground-mount supply (5–15 MW orders already feasible)

💠BESS under active evaluation 

💠Long-term contracts already secured with Jupiter (local cells) + TopCon suppliers

▫️Social media presence to be scaled (YouTube, Instagram, LinkedIn influencers) on suggestions

With thanks

Kalyan

Audio recording of conference call: link1

Kiri Industries: Transformative Growth Backed by Landmark DyStar Stake Sale Proceeds"

Company Overview and Existing Business

Kiri Industries Limited (KIL), headquartered in Gujarat, is one of India's leading manufacturers and exporters of dyes, dye intermediates, and basic chemicals. The product portfolio includes reactive dyes, acid dyes, direct dyes, and disperse dyes, along with intermediates such as vinyl sulphone, H-acid, and basic chemicals like sulphuric acid and oleum. The company operates fully integrated manufacturing facilities with backward integration, enabling cost efficiencies and quality control.

In FY25, Kiri reported consolidated operational revenue of approximately ₹740 crore with an EBITDA loss of ₹54 crore and net loss of ₹108 crore, reflecting ongoing industry challenges, especially in the dyes segment due to raw material volatility and global trade tariffs. The Q1 FY26 results show continued operational resilience but also highlight headwinds in capacity utilization with standalone revenues at ₹181 crore and consolidated revenues at ₹202 crore.

DyStar Stake Sale and Cash Payment

Kiri has been resolving a longstanding legal dispute involving DyStar—a global dyestuff leader—in which Kiri holds a 37.57% stake. The Singapore International Commercial Court ordered an en-bloc sale of DyStar shares held by Kiri and the majority shareholder Senda International Capital.

• Kiri agreed to sell its stake for a base consideration of approximately $676 million, with additional payments possibly bringing total proceeds to roughly $697 million (around ₹5,600 crore).
• The sale closing was initially scheduled for October 2, 2025, extendable to November 3, 2025, contingent on regulatory approvals and other conditions.
• Payment is prioritized for Kiri as per court ruling, covering $603.8 million plus receivership cost reimbursement and statutory interest at 5.33% from September 2023 until final payment.
• If the purchaser fails to close, the second-highest bidder valued around $1.6 billion will be considered, with a final deadline of December 31, 2025.Kiri-con-call-sep25.pdf​
• The DyStar settlement proceeds are expected imminently and underpin the substantial capex and growth plans of Kiri.

Copper and Fertilizer Plant Capex and Project Update

• The copper and fertilizer project, being executed through subsidiary Indo Asia Copper Ltd., is located near Pipavav Port, Gujarat.
• Official phase 1 project cost/ capex stands at approximately ₹10,661 crore, funded on a 70:30 debt-to-equity ratio.
• Equity infusion of roughly ₹1,036 crore from DyStar proceeds advance has been made; most debt is sanctioned and expected to be disbursed by end of 2025.
• Construction commenced in October 2025 with a 36-month timeline targeting commissioning around FY28.
• Facility is strategically placed near port and key infrastructure, optimizing logistics for copper smelting (500,000 MTPA) and integrated fertilizer production (DAP/NPK, 1.05 million MT).
• The first revenue generation from partial capacity (~25%) is expected in FY27, with phased scale up to full capacity by FY29-30, potentially generating over ₹40,000 crore annual revenue at full run rate from copper and fertilizer combined.

Valuations and Market Metrics

• Kiri Industries’ stock recently trades around ₹530–550 per share with a market capitalization near ₹2,800 crore.
• Trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) are about ₹26.75 with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 20x.
• Challenges in core dye business flux the near-term earnings, with Q1 FY26 PAT affected by operational and legal costs, but the DyStar settlement and copper-fertilizer project present a significant positive catalyst.
• The copper-fertilizer expansion, tied with the DyStar inflow, positions Kiri for multiple-fold growth potential, with project IRR expected around 25% and a thematic shift to high-growth sectors like metals and agriculture inputs.

Future Earnings Outlook

• Current standalone dyes and chemicals segment faces realignment due to global trade headwinds, cost pressures, and capacity utilization below 50%, with revised FY26 top-line guidance lowered to ₹800–900 crore.
• Copper-fertilizer integrated operations are anticipated to start contributing revenue from FY27, scaling significantly over the following 3 years.
• Projected revenues at full capacity could exceed ₹45,000 crore annually with EBITDA margin of approximately 15–20%, massively accelerating consolidated profitability and cash flow generation.
• DyStar settlement cash is expected to fully fund equity infusion for the copper project and reduce balance sheet leverage, boosting investment capacity and shareholder value creation.

Conclusion

Kiri Industries’ core business remains challenged but resilient, while the imminent DyStar sale cash inflow and the ambitious Pipavav integrated copper-fertilizer project create a compelling growth and value proposition. The legal resolution and capex deployment plan provide financial clarity and considerable future earnings upside supported by robust market demand in metals and fertilizer sectors.

We should closely monitor:

• DyStar sale closing and cash receipt by November 2025,
• phased execution progress of the copper-fertilizer facility,
• financial performance evolution post commissioning, and
• stabilization and growth of the dye and chemical business fundamentals.

This positions Kiri Industries as a strategic turnaround candidate and long-term investment with strong growth catalysts.

 With thanks

Be and Make (Kalyan)

Disc: Not a buy or sell call, it is just a stock study only. Do your own research.