market outlook short term (08-09-2008)

Wow again all the targets achieved, what a performance.
This week huge gap up opening might happen and better to avoid going long because
1. N-deal will affect the comapanies numebers only after 3-5 years, so there will not be any significant help in fundamentals for short to medium term except the change in sentiment.
2. FIIs are still net sellers
3. Nifty is also trading at 19 PE which is very high when we are growing at 10-15%
4. OPEC is going to take the decision to review the supply cuts on 9th sep and we can expect this as very crucial trigger. If it is favours then the upmove will sustain further (But big analysts says that OPEC will cut the production slightly)
5. GDP numebrs below 8% means some signals that our economy starts giving slowing signals
6. After the bear market starts markets will take nearly 18-36 months to change its gear and we are in 9 month old only so as per history no big surprises should expect right now.
7. Crude will again go up after taking a breathe and will test the 120+ level.
8. The most important is that the big beneficiares LnT,BHEL,RELinfra and NTPC will have 13.7 & weightage in Sensex whereas the RIL it self is having more than these four of 14.8 %. So, with this instantly the beneficiares may not push the indices much due to RIL is under the bears grip.
All these indicating that we are having bad news along with some good news so better to watch out for the band 3850-4850 and we are near to upper end of the band hence after reaching the go short in three steps at 4550/4675/4755 with a stop loss of 4820. This is a short term call not for the intra week call.

NSG wavier rally will move the indices in green for atleast couple of days.
with thanks
be and make