As expected nifty got the support around the 3310 level hence investors who gone for this call went with good returns.
Now, we required to keeping flowing with the trend i.e., go long…
Buy nifty keeping 3360 as stop loss aiming the T1: 3510 T2:3630
With thanks
Be and make
3 comments:
Dear Be and Make,
Last week I followed your recommendation of not selling RIL shares (in cash) rather hedged my positions by shorting NF around 3480. Squared of partially the NF at 3350 level and again taken a NF June short position at 3490 during the end of today’s trading hours. I saw this message only after the market was closed. I will take a decision to square off the position based on the reply to this post/your market outlook.
I had some reasonable gains this week, thanks for your recommendations.
I am very new in analyzing the technical indicators. Following are my observations. Correct me if I am wrong.
1. By seeing all the indicators (specifically index stocks), the market looks overbought. Nifty RSI (14) close to 70 and MACD (12, 26, 9) divergence is almost heading towards negative territory.
2. Nifty well above 200 DMA, whereas 50 DMA is well below 200 DMA
3. We are close to the major resistance level of previous Bull Run (first half of May 06).
4. Considering we fell from last cliff of 4620 to 2524 (between Sep 08 and Oct 08), 50% retracement of the rally is 3572 and 68.2% retracement is 3819.
Although the trend is upwards, going short will be less risky than going long. I strongly feel the nifty will come down to 3150 levels before moving up to 3700-3800 zones. Even if it spikes to these levels, it will quickly retrace to 3300 level. I might be jumping guns and can be totally wrong. Please provide comments on the same. I also have a question---Why technical indicators like RSI, MACD, Fibonacci retracement etc. are not discussed in TV channels (is it too obvious for the traders/investors to know)?
Regards
Ganapathy
Dear Ganapathy
Sorry for the delayed reply, this week I have not updated my home page too.
Yes, you are right some technical indicators showing that some profit booking likely to emerge and was happened but it is interesting that it is very short lived like the last one.
As I am keeping a close watch on 3250-3310 levels where nifty getting huge support. In my view, this rally likely to continue unless some big compelling event comes ( like flu etc.,) the main reason behind my view is that there is a lot of cash sitting on the side lines which can enter at any point from here. This money can push our front line indices one more leg up.
FIIs invested mostly around the 2550-2850 levels hence they will try to lift the market to fetch more gains and will loose this chance very easily. Now, the big fight is between the FIIs and DIIs as FIIs were hugely invested in delivery (from 13th march they are the net buyers almost every day and purched almost 8000crores in delivery till 29th april during the same period DIIs only bought 880crores so DIIs are missing this rally) where as DIIs are sitting with 15-20% cash at this point of time.
FIIs are trying to push the indices to move up further where DIIs are worrying to enter at these levels hence they will try to drag down the indices.
It clearly tells the outlook that some money likely to come to the market which can give some cushion. But FIIs started to unwind their long positions in futures from last ten days means markets likely to see a correction (short lived).
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The levels you are discussing are very correct according to the technicals and in TVs they will not talk about these indicators due to their survival? Based on this indicators and oscillators they gives the calls but they never talk about this MACD, RSI etc.,
With thanks
Be and make
H a p p y I n v e s t i n g
Dear Be and Make,
Thanks for your comment. I can understand the money flow pattern of DII and FII from your post (Just looked in BSE site; evident even in the last trading day of April 09).
It was nice to know from an expert that some of my technical analysis was not bad (being new to it).
I will wait for your post on market outlook (for next week) to take positions in Nifty Futures/Options.
Happy weekend.
Regards
Ganapathy
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