I am tracking this stock from its IPO. I entered at the price of 62/- and made money on ups and downs. Till now I loosed two times in this counter from last couple of years and Is very negligible when compared to my gains.
I wish to share some past issues in this counter which are factored in.
In the quarter oct-dec07:
1. Reliance Petroleum Limited has informed the Exchange regarding a media release dated October 16, 2007, titled "RPL achieves overall project progress of over 70%; Refinery project ahead of schedule".
2. The stock was moved from 110 – 290 level due to RPLs statements anticipating production will start ahead of schedule and will hugely change the earning number in FY09.
3. The real drama happened during this quarter most of the small investors started entering in this counter and the fancy to ‘reliance’ pushed the scrip madly from 110-290/- and the management sold the 4.1% stake @224/- knowing that is the fair value to book profits some of the holdings.
4. This severely affected the sentiment of the investors and the scrip fell from the 290+ to 240+ level sharply.
In the quarter jan – mar08:
1. Reliance Petroleum Limited has informed the Exchange regarding a media release dated jan 15, 2008, titled "RPL refinery achieves 82% overall progress in just two years Refinery project ahead of schedule".
2. The stock fell from 250+ to 150+ level due to the ‘chevron not interested to hike its stake due to overpricing, management (RIL) too sold its 4% stake @224/-, there is no such indication of production starting date or month , AND THE MANAGEMENT REPEATEDLY SAYING ‘production will be ahead of schedule’.
3. These all are hugely affected the sentiment of the investors.
In the quarter april –june08:
1. Reliance Petroleum Limited has informed the Exchange regarding a media release dated April 16, 2008, titled "RPL refinery achieves 90% overall progress; Project on track for completion ahead of schedule".
2. Again the same announcement ‘production is ahead of schedule’
3. The stock again went up marginally on short covering but again fell to 190+ to 160+ level.
4. The real patience time for the investors and all anticipating atleast the production will start on September 2008. But, no official statement from the management.
In the quarter July - …. 08:
1. Reliance Petroleum Limited has informed the Exchange regarding a media release dated July 22, 2008, titled "RPL refinery achieves 94% overall progress; Pre-commissioning activities gain momentum".
2. The Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Petroleum Limited, or RPL has said that the refinery at Jamnagar will be completed ahead of December 2008. The company has utilized Rs 25,515 crore against projected Rs 24,125 crore for the project.
3. Again the same statement from chairman, nothing special about this!
4. This quarter some macro picture is going to be changed because of windfall tax, ban on EOU status..
5. Most of the analysts, which are strong believers of RPL success story now coming with bearish short term call aiming 140-145/- level.
6. UPA too showed the vote of confidence means crucial time ahead for RPL,RIL and cairn.
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Conclusion:
a) For short term huge panic will come from here which will drag the RPL to 140+ level.
b) For long term investors its good opportunity to add at 140+ level.
c) For FY09 production may not be before September means there may not have significant impact on FY09 results. No such announcement from the management.
d) Some political issues now started targeting the Mukesh group companies.
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With thanks
K a l y a n
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