Global oil demand is expected to decline slightly in 2008 and 2009, the first drop in a generation, as the most severe economic crisis since the 1930s slashes consumption across the developed world.
“Global GDP growth is the main driver of oil demand and with the economic slowdown, we see global GDP rising by just 1.2% next year,” Michael Lewis, head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank AG, said. “Oil demand growth tends to lag world GDP (gross domestic product) growth by about 2%, so we think we’ll see demand falling.”
The fall in demand is expected to come primarily from members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), where recessions are predicted to be most severe, and which were heavily exposed to there cord rise in oil prices this year.
“The economic crisis seems to be getting worse and worse,” Simon Wardell at international consultancy firm Global Insight said. “Falling transportation of goods is going to be the biggest impact on oil demand, though this may be offset to a degree in 2009 by a slower decline in US demand than we’ve seen this year.”
Consumption from emerging economies such as China and India, which ignited a six-year rally in commodities that sent oil up sevenfold at its peak, is expected to continue to grow into 2009, but at a slower rate than before.
Demand growth in non-OECD economies is expected to total 840,000bpd in 2009, compared with 1.33mbpd in 2008.
The World Bank had said on Tuesday it expects China’s GDP to grow at its slowest rate since 1990 next year, cutting its growth forecast to 7.5% from 9.2%.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly report that as China’s main export markets in Europe and the US are expected to slow sharply in 2009, “oil demand is expected to be somewhat weaker”.
“Given that emerging markets have been the engine of global oil demand growth in the past few years, a deteriorating economic outlook for non-OECD economies is clearly worrying,” analysts at Merrill Lynch and Co. said in a report released on Wednesday.
“Although emerging market oil demand growth will still be positive overall, it will be substantially below the levels observed in the past few years,” the report added.
---
with thanks
be and make
No comments:
Post a Comment