Mar 24, 2012

What are the key triggers for the markets for now? Be and Make


Budget is over, RBI credit policy is over and Inflation data is over still market not any direction. Market analysts felt that after these three big events markets will take a direction which can be either side. In actual yet not emerged any such trend in the market and FIIs are still putting money in the Indian bourses despite the neutral to negative outcome of the above three events. Now, what retailers should do? What events will drive the markets right now?
Yes, this is the exact precise question at this point of time. Then what are the key events which can drive the markets from here.
  1. Crude Oil price: If crude oil price stays even above the $130/barrel then it would be a very big negative event for the market. Our FM already pointed to hike the oil prices after the budget to restrain the Fiscal deficit but UPA alliances will not allow them in a simple manner. So, fiscal deficit on account of crude going to deteriorate Indian story for sure.
  2. Rupee Value: The depreciating Rupee value will be another big event for the marets right now. So, government will need to fight hard to control the trade deficit.
  3. Inflation: It is going to cool down in the next financial year; it is the only data government can take a breather for a while. The main relief is because of the base effect and not with the supply side issue hence we cannot rule out the possibility of higher inflation.

These three events give us cues for the market direction in my view.

With thanks
Be and Make

1 comment: